Nobody is favourite in knockout games this time round

By Syed Khalid Mahmood

Look at what has happened in the league matches of the Cricket World Cup 2011 whose knockout phase starts with the quarter-finals on March 23.

In Group B, obviously the tougher of two groups, Ireland shocked England, Bangladesh stunned England, England surprised South Africa and South Africa edged out India. The West Indies prevailed over Ireland, Bangladesh and Netherlands but crashed against South Africa, England and India.

With the sole exception of Netherlands, who remained winless despite the awesome display of their wonder-boy Ryan tan Deschate, all the five teams were in business and stood a chance of making it to the quarter-finals. Finally it was the fancied quartet of South Africa, India, England and the West Indies who sailed through to the last eight, leaving behind Bangladesh and Ireland.

The situation in Group A was different and it remained a four-horse race all along with the quartet of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia and New Zealand, showing no mercy for the minnows. The trio of Zimbabwe, Kenya and Canada simply didn’t possess the firepower to test the experienced sides.

There were surprises galore in Group A, as well with Pakistan prevailing over hosts Sri Lanka and defending champions Australia while getting whacked by New Zealand, hammered by both Sri Lanka as well as Australia.

Unlike many of the last editions of the World Cup, there’s not a single unbeaten outfit in the league matches. Every team having reached the quarter-finals has tasted defeat and it’s very difficult to predict the outcome of the knockout games.

At the start of the tournament, Pakistan would have been expected to crush the West Indies, South Africa would have been tipped to blast New Zealand, Sri Lanka would have been installed as the firm favourites to topple England and India could have entered the game at a slight advantage against Australia.

But things have changed now since the start of the tournament and nobody would be surprised if exactly the opposite happens and the West Indies, Australia, New Zealand and England contest the semifinals at the expense of Pakistan, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka.

Pakistan have enhanced their reputation by tarnishing Australia’s grand unbeaten run of victories in the World Cup. Will Australia be finally dethroned this time round? The manner in their batting collapsed against Pakistan I don’t think anybody should be taken by surprise if they are whipped again.

What about Pakistan’s own chances of lifting the trophy? Well they are only three matches away but they still have a long way in the tournament of uncertainties. If they can routed by Ross Taylor of New Zealand there’s still plenty of energy left in Chris Gayle to lift his side with another astonishing knock. So Pakistan can’t take the West Indies for granted either although they are the weakest of the four quarter-finalists from the rival group.

I don’t know if anyone would still be backing India to reclaim the title after their dismal batting performance in the final phase of the innings not one time but three times during the course of the competition. It’s truly incredible how they got bowled out inside 50 overs against England, South Africa and the West Indies after being in total control till the 40th over of the innings.

Sri Lanka bat for Pakistan once more

By Syed Khalid Mahmood

For the last many years the Sri Lankans have been much stronger outfit in the cricket field than Pakistan but the story has changed dramatically when these two nations were engaged in a combat.

In fact it would be unfair to call it a battle or a combat because these two countries hardly ever appear to be taking on each other with the attitude of a rival. It’s more of a friendly atmosphere whenever they come across each other.

The Sri Lankans have had a history of failing against Pakistan and they continue doing it, purposely or otherwise is anybody’s guess. May be it is sheer coincidence but having lost eight of the nine games in a global event makes people realize that there’s something missing when taking on Pakistan.

History repeated itself at R Premadasa Stadium in Colombo on February 26 as Pakistan surprised even their own die-hard supporters by whipping Sri Lanka, one of the favourites to lift the trophy, in their crunch Group A game of the Cricket World Cup 2011.

People have their reasons of assessing the situation but I had ‘declared' as early as the opening overs of the Pakistan innings that Sri Lanka would not be winning this game. The so many experts around me kept arguing and they were unwilling to accept my verdict.

Nobody was ready to accept the fact that Sri Lanka, with so many batting stalwarts in their ranks, will not be able to chase down a target of 278 in 50 overs on the easiest paced track with the dew factor also on their side. My reply was simple. They could do it in 40 overs only if they so desire.

I am neither a fortune-teller nor an astrologer. Betting is not my cup of tea yet. I was being offered to place a bet when I had so emphatically and loudly started asserting that Pakistan were going to win the match.

Well let me share it with my readers and friends, particularly those who were reluctant to foresee a struggling Pakistan line-up overcome a formidable Sri Lankan side in their own den, that I had based my assessment on the basis of the chemistry as well as the history between the two teams.

The manner in which the Pakistani batsmen had a go at the Sri Lankan bowlers from the outset and the way in which Younis Khan in particular was allowed to bat had left very little doubt in my mind about the outcome of the game.

The poor Sri Lankan fans kept cheering their team at the ground until the last over but to me they were just innocent people oblivious of so many facts that determine the course of the game.

Mind you it was Sri Lanka’s first-ever defeat in a World Cup match at home. But don’t forget it was their first outing against Pakistan as well.

I don’t wish to go into the details but historically the Sri Lankans have had this habit of losing the intensity and focus when facing Pakistan. It had all started in the inaugural World Cup in 1975.

Sri Lanka, still an Associate member of the ICC, had done wonders to challenge the mighty Australian bowling attack having the likes of Jeff Thomson and Dennis Lillee. But they fell like novices in their very next game against Pakistan.

Sri Lanka had helped the Pakistan cause immensely by their twin defeats in the league matches of the 1983 as well as the 1987 World Cup. Pakistan forced Sri Lanka to submission in 1992 again on course of winning the title.

It was Sri Lanka’s turn to clinch the title in 1996 when they didn’t need to clash with Pakistan. The Sri Lankans made it to the final again in 2007 when Pakistan was eliminated early.

India’s 16 runs off last three overs raise doubts of spot-fixing in World Cup opener

By Syed Khalid Mahmood

Cricket is indeed a funny game but it becomes funnier when external elements appear to be touching base in one form of the other. There are speculations once more about spot-fixing having taken place in the opening match of the 10th Cricket World Cup 2011 between co-hosts Bangladesh and India at Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur, on February 19.

India had mauled the Bangladesh bowling to rattle up 354 runs for the loss of only two wickets in 47 overs. With Virender Sehwag and Virat Kohli in complete command and the likes of Yuvraj Singh, Mahendra Singh Dhoni and Yusuf Pathan padded up there was always a possibility of the eventual total going somewhere around 400.

With such a solid platform and the bowlers having lost the radar following the hammering they received, India looked set to go past 400 because the advent of T20 cricket has helped every team in going berserk in the death overs. Any team having eight wickets in hand would be expected to get a minimum of 30 to 40 in last three overs these days.

How India remained contended with just 16 runs off the last three overs of their innings after being in total control against a demoralized bowling attack surprised many fans and there was indeed suspicion of foul play in the air.

It’s beyond comprehension to get these little runs at a stage when the fielding side is more than willing to concede a single every ball. The boundaries are the order of the day in the closing stages of the innings.

You don’t need to be an expert to assess these kinds of situation when the batsmen are only supposed to go for the kill rather than push for singles or twos. As a matter of fact it needs extra effort to under-perform or do something terribly unusual. That’s where the wrongdoing becomes little obvious.

As the cricket administrators have been saying all along it’s next to impossible to eliminate the menace of spot fixing. They are dead right. The match-fixing element could be controlled but it seems beyond any authority to come to terms with spot-fixing.

The protagonists of spot-fixing might have chalked up their own strategic plans to hit an event as huge as the Cricket World Cup.

The Anti-Corruption Unit of the International Cricket Council would do the policing but they are unlikely to prevent spot-fixing and there’s an indication already on the very first day of the tournament.

I don’t think that they have any mechanism in place to curb such incidents. Neither do they seem to be having the desire or the will power to contain the immoral acts for reasons known to everyone following the game keenly.

This could be the most open World Cup as well as the most controversial one if we continue witnessing the unusual segments of this high magnitude. Doubts will be raised and the game will not remain free from malpractices if corrective measures are not taken.

Will India sustain momentum to lift trophy?

By Syed Khalid Mahmood

The momentum is with India at the moment and they need to play very badly indeed in order to deny themselves the chance of lifting the trophy which has eluded them for decades now.

The Indians have had the knack of giving it away and not delivering at crucial stages but this outfit, led by Mahandra Singh Dhoni, has far too many match-winners to cope with the contingencies.

No other team going into the Cricket World Cup 2011 is as strong on paper. Neither has any of their rivals have had the ideal preparations. The pitches are going to suit them. The conditions will inspire them. In my estimation no side ever has had held this kind of advantage entering the World Cup.

There was no clear favourite in 1975 when the West Indies won the inaugural event in England. Primarily at the strength of their fast bowlers the West Indians were the favourites in 1979 and they did live up to the billing. Their invincibility was tarnished by India a few months ago before the big event in the summer of 1983 and they were dethroned at the hands of the same rivals in the final.

Co-hosts Pakistan and defending champions India were the favourites in 1987 but neither of them made it to the final with Australia being the surprise winners. Quite a few teams were rated highly in 1992 but the title was clinched by Pakistan, languishing near the bottom of the table at the halfway stage of the competition.

Sri Lanka made most of the home advantage in 1996 while experimenting with brave tactics that paid dividends on the docile sub-continental pitches. South Africa looked the strongest on paper in 1999 but they became victims of their own nerves to let Australia win the title.

Australia faced a lot of problems off the field on the eve of the World Cup in 2003 but they displayed mental toughness to defend the crown successfully. They endured frightening moments leading to the event in 2007, having been whitewashed by New Zealand in the ODI series, before conjuring up another title win.

The scenario is different this time round. Except Ricky Ponting, they have lost almost all the architects of the previous three World Cups one after another. Australia find themselves in a tough corner once more. They were boosted by a 6-1 win over England but the losses in both the warm-up games to India and South Africa have brought them down to earth again.

India have enjoyed tremendous success in both Tests as well as ODIs during the last couple of years in particular and the cool heads of skipper Dhoni and coach Garry Kirsten have worked wonders for them. They just need to extend that form for a few more weeks to regain the trophy.

Although each and every game of the tournament will be crucial for them, their real test will commence from the quarter-final stage. Their fate will be dependent on the performance of their boys in the knockout games. They do have the most potent spin attack and the most formidable batting line-up.

Will they sustain the momentum until the end? Will Sachin Tendulkar fulfill his dream in what is expected to be his last World Cup? These are the questions igniting the minds of the cricket followers all over the globe. Well all of us have to wait for another month, until the real battle starts with the quarter-finals.

Countdown to Cricket World Cup 2011 begins

By Syed Khalid Mahmood

The final countdown to the Cricket World Cup 2011 has begun with just over a month to go for the most sought after tournament of the game to get underway. The cricket fever has started gripping the Test playing nations and it will spread to the various other countries too as the mega events gets closer.

There’s a lot of debate about which team is going to lift the trophy this time round. The opinion may be divided as to whom the crown will belong to but there are very few people who consider Australia, having done it for the past three times, a serious contender to make it four in a row.

Although the Australians still have an ODI series against England to play at home before the World Cup but I don’t think they would be helped much by its outcome. They have endured a kind of lean patch in every format of the game in the recent past and there’s very little to suggest them making any impression on the flat pitches of the sub-continent.

Australia, who also played the final of the 1996 World Cup when the event was last held in this part of the world, are quite unlikely to go that far this time round. They are very low in confidence at the moment and I don’t think they would be able to make mincemeat of the England side in the upcoming ODI series as they used to do in the past.

India and Sri Lanka are the two teams who in my opinion should be progressing to the final of the CWC 2011 unless and until something very dramatic happens. Besides the home advantage both these sub-continental teams will be boosted by their success stories during the last couple of seasons.

The Indians, although humiliated in the last couple of editions of the ICC World Twenty20 after having won the inaugural event in 2007, have fared consistently in ODIs and Test matches.

The Indians, with a strong squad complemented by formidable bench strength at their disposal, have their best chance in years to regain the title they had won for the only time way back in 1983.

The Sri Lankans have a potentially World Cup winning combination in their folds as well. It remains to be seen at which stage of the tournament they come head to head with India, whom they had eliminated in the semifinals in 1996.

England have been on a high after annexing the ICC World T20 title in the West Indies last year and they must be fancying their chances of claiming their hands on a trophy that has never come in their bag yet.

South Africa may have struggled against Pakistan in their last ODI in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) not very long ago but they have adequate resources to make a huge impact on the competition and do away with the tag of the chokers.

India, Sri Lanka, England and South Africa, in my opinion, are more likely to be making it to the top four with Australia being their main challengers. New Zealand and the West Indies can’t be expected to do anything more than bringing about an upset or two. So could be the fate of Bangladesh and Zimbabwe.

It’s never wise to rule Pakistan out therefore don’t be surprised if they go on to win the tournament even with the turmoil at the top and all those controversies surrounding the team. On paper they don’t have much of a chance, however.